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International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence

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Author Info
Joshua Aizenman ()
Jaewoo Lee ()

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Abstract

This paper compares the importance of precautionary and mercantilist motives in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. Overall, empirical results support precautionary motives; in particular, a more liberal capital account regime increases international reserves. Theoretically, large precautionary demand for international reserves arises as a self-insurance to avoid costly liquidation of long-term projects when the economy is susceptible to sudden stops. The welfare gain from the optimal management of international reserves is of a first-order magnitude, reducing the welfare cost of liquidity shocks from a first-order to a second-order magnitude. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-007-9030-z
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 18 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 191-214
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:18:y:2007:i:2:p:191-214

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

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Related research
Keywords: International reserves Precautionary demand Mercantilist Financial crises F15 F31 F43

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Prisman, Eliezer Z. & Slovin, Myron B. & Sushka, Marie E., 1986. "A general model of the banking firm under conditions of monopoly, uncertainty, and recourse," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 293-304, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Working Papers 11306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "Optimal international reserves and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 345-362, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Neuberger, . "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2002. "The High Demand for International Reserves in the Far East: What's Going On?," NBER Working Papers 9266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
  10. Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 299, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kravis, Irving B, 1984. "Comparative Studies of National Incomes and Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Janet L. Yellen, 2007. "The Asian financial crisis ten years later: assessing the past and looking to the future," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb 6. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Yoshifumi Kon, 2007. "Liquidity Risk Aversion, Debt Maturity, and Current Account Surpluses: A Theory and Evidence from East Asia," NBER Working Papers 13004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "The Cost of Reserves," Business School Working Papers 2006-10, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy," Business School Working Papers liquid, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Marcos Chamon & Alejo Costa & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2008. "Is There a Novelty Premium on New Financial Instruments? The Argentine Experience with GDP-Indexed Warrants," IMF Working Papers 08/109, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Stanley Watt & Saade Chami & Donal McGettigan, 2007. "Jordan's International Reserve Position: Justifiably Strong," IMF Working Papers 07/103, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marc-André Gosselin & Nicolas Parent, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia," Working Papers 05-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2007. "Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 13216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Joshua Aizenman, 2006. "International Reserves Management and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 12734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Yi Sun, 2008. "Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters," NBER Working Papers 13734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lane, Philip R. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "The international financial integration of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4132, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2007. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup’s Wardrobe and the Joneses," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  15. Joshua Aizenman, 2007. "Large Hoarding of International Reserves and the Emerging Global Economic Architecture," NBER Working Papers 13277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," NBER Working Papers 12363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?," NBER Working Papers 12451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Herman kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "Domestic Investment And External Imbalances In East Asia," CAMA Working Papers 2007-04, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  20. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," NBER Working Papers 12718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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