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Влияние «Внезапных Остановок» Потоков Капитала На Национальную Экономику // The National Economy Is Affected By Sudden Stops In Capital Flows

Author

Listed:
  • V. Arkhipova V.

    (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • В. Архипова В.

    (Институт экономики Российской академии наук)

Abstract

The reasons for sharp changes in the direction of financial resource flows are a subject of research vital for any period of the global financial system history. The purpose of the study is to identify the main features of the financial phenomenon of a sudden stop in capital flows. To determine the theoretical parameters of the sudden stop in capital flows a review of the 1995-2015 literature was made. The likelihood of this event in the short and medium terms, in practice, is estimated based on the IMF, World Bank and the Bank of Russia data for the domestic economy for the period of 1994-2015. The study revealed three different approaches to the measurement and determination of a sudden stop in capital flows. In order to assess the significance of this financial problem for the national economy of Russia, a complex statistical analysis based on all the three approaches (the data of the financial account in the Russian balance of payments at one of the research stages was “cleared” from the reserves) was used. Причины и частота резких изменений в направлении движения финансовых ресурсов - актуальная тематика для научного анализа в любой период истории развития мировой финансовой системы. Цель настоящего исследования заключается в выявлении основных характеристик такого финансового феномена, как «внезапная остановка» потоков капитала. Для определения теоретических параметров ««внезапной остановки» движения капитала использован обзор работ 1995-2015 гг. Реализация и вероятность возникновения данного события в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективе на практике оцениваются на основе данных МВФ, Мирового банка и Банка России для отечественной экономики за период 1994-2015 гг. Выявлены три различных подхода к измерению и определению «внезапной остановки» потоков капитала. Для того чтобы объективно оценить актуальность этой финансовой проблемы для национальной экономики России, мы использовали комплексный статистический анализ на базе всех трех подходов (при этом данные финансового счета платежного баланса России на одном из этапов исследования «очищались» от резервов).

Suggested Citation

  • V. Arkhipova V. & В. Архипова В., 2016. "Влияние «Внезапных Остановок» Потоков Капитала На Национальную Экономику // The National Economy Is Affected By Sudden Stops In Capital Flows," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(5), pages 115-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2016:i:5:p:115-125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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