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Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?

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  • Michael D. Bordo

Abstract

The current pattern of sudden stops and financial crises in emerging markets has great resonance to events in the first era of globalization, from 1870-1913. In this paper I present descriptive statistics on capital flows, current account reversals and financial crises during the period 1870-1913 and compare them with the recent experience. I analyze the incidence of crises and measure their effects on real output losses. Furthermore, I consider the influence of openness to trade, original sin and currency mismatches on the pattern of sudden stops and financial crises. I find strikingly similar patterns across both eras of globalization. The pre-1914 sudden stops were associated with significant output losses comparable with the recent events, and their effects differed considerably depending on a country%u2019s economic circumstances, just as they do today.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12393.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12393

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael D. Bordo, 1995. "The Gold Standard as a `Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval'," NBER Working Papers 5340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 417-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Luis Catão, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Currency Drops," IMF Working Papers 06/133, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," Research Department Publications 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  6. Muge Adalet & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 205-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peter L. Rousseau & Richard Sylla, 2003. "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 373-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ricardo J Caballero & Kevin Cowan & Jonathan Kearns, 2004. "Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons from Australia and Chile," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. repec:nbr:nberwo:11173 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Under what circumstances, past and present, have international rescues of countries in financial distress been successful?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 683-708, August.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  15. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI discussion papers 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Guillermo Calvo, 2013. "Puzzling over the Anatomy of Crises: Liquidity and the Veil of Finance," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2011. "Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls," CEPR Discussion Papers 8550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2012. "Harvests and Financial Crises in Gold-Standard America," NBER Working Papers 18616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
  6. Michael D. Bordo, 2008. "An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 14569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. María Florencia Aráoz & Ana María Cerro & Osvaldo Meloni & Tatiana Soria Genta, 2009. "Empirical Evidence on Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Argentina," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 116-127, August.
  8. Michael D. Bordo, 2008. "Growing up to Financial Stability," Working Papers 85, Bank of Greece.
  9. Rui P. Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _089, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2013. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Puzzling over the Anatomy of Crises- Liquidity and the Veil of Finance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 31, pages 39-64, November.
  11. Pollitt, M., 2007. "Evaluating the evidence on electricity reform: Lessons for the South East Europe (SEE) market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0756, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Wen-Yao Grace Wang & Paula Hernandez-Verme & Raymond A. K. Cox Author E-mail: rcox@unbc.ca, 2012. "Financial Fragility, Exchange-Rate Regimes, and Sudden Stops in a Small Open Economy," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 25-54, September.
  13. Sophia Lazaretou, 2011. "Financial crises and financial market regulation: the long record of an ‘emerger’," Working Papers 140, Bank of Greece.

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