The current pattern of sudden stops and financial crises in emerging markets has great resonance to events in the first era of globalization, from 1870-1913. In this paper I present descriptive statistics on capital flows, current account reversals and financial crises during the period 1870-1913 and compare them with the recent experience. I analyze the incidence of crises and measure their effects on real output losses. Furthermore, I consider the influence of openness to trade, original sin and currency mismatches on the pattern of sudden stops and financial crises. I find strikingly similar patterns across both eras of globalization. The pre-1914 sudden stops were associated with significant output losses comparable with the recent events, and their effects differed considerably depending on a country%u2019s economic circumstances, just as they do today.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
12393.
Length: Date of creation: Jul 2006 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12393
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
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Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001.
"Is the crisis problem growing more severe?,"
Economic Policy,
CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
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