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Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience

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Author Info
Bernardina Algieri ()
Thierry Bracke ()
Abstract

The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment, exhibiting slowing domestic demand growth. In some cases, the adjustment was mainly external, facilitated by an exchange rate depreciation but without economic slowdown. Finally, some cases involved a crisis-like combination of a severe slowdown and a significant currency depreciation. Using a multinomial logit, we find that this classification of episodes helps improve the predictability of current account adjustment.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2029.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2029

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Related research
Keywords: external imbalances current account adjustment cluster analysis multinomial logit

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-27, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Working Papers 12193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
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  12. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Reversals and Persistency in Transition Regions," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paterno, Francesco, 2005. "Do workers'remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3766, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Gabriele Galati & Guy Debelle, 2005. "Current account adjustment and capital flows," BIS Working Papers 169, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  18. Kenza Benhima & Olena Havrylchyk, 2006. "Current Account Reversals and Long Term Imbalances: Application to the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2006-27, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  19. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Current Account Reversals In Selected Transition Countries," International Finance 0510021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  20. Calvo, Guillermo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2006. "The resolution of global imbalances: Soft landing in the North, sudden stop in emerging markets?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 605-613, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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