What Do Current Account Reversals in OECD Countries Tell Us About the US Case?
AbstractThis study examines macroeconomic developments around reversals in current account deficits in 29 OECD countries over four decades and draws some inferences for the present US deficit. Estimates of a probit model indicate that the deepness of the deficit itself, absence of spare production capacity and a beginning real depreciation are factors that increase the likelihood of a current account reversal in the following year. For the US each of these three indicators of a reversal are now on, making a near reversal probable. Over the past 40 years half of the current account deficit reversals in the OECD area were followed by a recession in the countries concerned. Copyright 2007 The Authors.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.
Volume (Year): 31 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (02)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920
Other versions of this item:
- Leo de Haan & Hubert Schokker & Anastassia Tcherneva, 2006. "What do current account reversals in OECD countries tell us about the US case?," DNB Working Papers 111, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2011. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment—Insights from Past Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 401-425, July.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rua, Gisela, 2011.
"Exchange Rates and Global Rebalancing,"
ADBI Working Papers
278, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Barry Eichengreen & Gisela Rua, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Global Rebalancing," Finance Working Papers 23258, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Barry Eichengreen & Gisela Rua, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Global Rebalancing," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23258, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Algieri, Bernardina & Bracke, Thierry, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 0762, European Central Bank.
- Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Current account adjustments in OECD countries revisited: The role of the fiscal stance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 719-734.
- Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013.
"Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2013-31, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-Account Adjustments and Exchange-Rate Misalignments," Working Papers 2013-29, CEPII research center.
- Pancaro, Cosimo, 2013. "Current account reversals in industrial countries: does the exchange rate regime matter?," Working Paper Series 1547, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.