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Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments

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  • Blaise Gnimasoun
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper aims at studying current-account imbalances by paying a particular attention to exchange-rate misalignments. We rely on a nonlinear model linking the persistence of current-account imbalances to the deviation of the exchange rate to its equilibrium value. Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we show that persistence of current-account imbalances strongly depends on currency misalignments. More specifically, while there is no persistence in cases of currency undervaluation or weak overvaluation, persistence tends to augment for overvaluations higher than 11%. In addition, whereas disequilibria are persistent even for very low overvaluations in the euro area, persistence is observed only for overvaluations higher than 14% for non-eurozone members.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2013-31.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2013-31

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Keywords: current-account imbalances; current-account persistence; exchange-rate misalignments; panel smooth transition regression models;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  2. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-42, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2014. "How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-5, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.

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