There are a number of worrisome features of the U.S. current account deficit. In particular, its size and persistence, the extent to which it is financing consumption as opposed to investment, and the reliance on debt inflows raise concerns about the likelihood of a sharp adjustment. We examine episodes of current account adjustment in industrial countries to assess the validity of these concerns. Our main findings are (i) larger deficits take longer to adjust and are associated with significantly slower income growth (relative to trend) during the current account recovery than smaller deficits, (ii) consumption-driven current account deficits involve significantly larger depreciations than deficits financing investment, and (iii) there is little evidence that deficits in economies that run persistent deficits, have large net foreign debt positions, experience greater short-term capital flows, or are less open are accommodated by more extensive exchange rate adjustment or slower growth. Our findings are consistent with earlier work showing that, in general, current account adjustment tends to be associated with slow income growth and a real depreciation. Overall, our results support claims that the size of the current account deficit and the extent to which it is financing consumption matter for adjustment.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
11823.
Length: Date of creation: Dec 2005 Date of revision: Publication status: published relationship to a non-chapter. This should not happen. Please contact NBER. Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11823
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F3 - International Economics - - International Finance F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Sebastian Edwards, 2002.
"Does the Current Account Matter?,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Muge Adalet & Barry Eichengreen, 2007.
"Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?,"
NBER Chapters,
in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 205-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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