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Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows

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  • Guy Debelle
  • Gabriele Galati

Abstract

We examine episodes of current account adjustment in industrial countries over the past 30 years. We find that they were typically associated with a sizable growth slowdown and a large exchange rate depreciation. There was no discernible change in the nature of capital flows just prior to an adjustment. Hence, adjustments may be responding to the resolution of domestic imbalances rather than being an exogenous event. We show that global developments triggered the adjustment, possibly by triggering the unwinding of the domestic imbalances. Most of the ex post adjustment of the financial account was in private sector flows, primarily by foreign investors. Copyright � 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2007)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
Pages: 989-1013

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:15:y:2007:i:5:p:989-1013

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References

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  1. Tudela, Merxe, 2004. "Explaining currency crises: a duration model approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 799-816, September.
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  13. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Catherine L. Mann, 1999. "Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 47.
  15. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
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