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External Adjustment and the Global Crisis

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  • Philip R. Lane
  • Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti

Abstract

The period preceding the global financial crisis was characterized by a substantial widening of current account imbalances across the world. Since the onset of the crisis, these imbalances have contracted to a significant extent. In this paper, we analyze the ongoing process of external adjustment in advanced economies and emerging markets. We find that countries whose pre-crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be explained by standard economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance. We subsequently examine the contributions of real exchange rates, domestic demand and domestic output to the adjustment process (allowing for differences across exchange rate regimes) and find that external adjustment in deficit countries was achieved primarily through demand compression, rather than expenditure switching. Finally, we show that changes in other investment flows were the main channel of financial account adjustment, with official external assistance and ECB liquidity cushioning the exit of private capital flows for some countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17352.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Publication status: published as Philip R. Lane, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti. "External Adjustment and the Global Crisis," in Charles Engel, Kristin Forbes, and Jeffrey Frankel, organizers, "Global Financial Crisis" Elsevier, Journal of International Economics 88(2) (2012)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17352

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References

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  1. Muge Adalet & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 205-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  3. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp333, IIIS.
  4. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 22, pages 519-573, 07.
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  20. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  2. Philip Lane, 2013. "Financial Globalisation and the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 555-580, July.
  3. Lane, Philip R. & McQuade, Peter, 2013. "Domestic credit growth and international capital flows," Working Paper Series 1566, European Central Bank.
  4. Stefan Ederer & Peter Reschenhofer, 2013. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the EU," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 42, WWWforEurope.
  5. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip Lane, 2011. "Bilateral Portfolio Dynamics During the Global Financial Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp366, IIIS.
  6. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2014. "How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-5, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  7. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-42, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  8. Evans, Martin, 2013. "Global Imbalances, Risk, and the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 52363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Philip R. Lane, 2009. "Cross-Border Financial Integration in Asia and the Macro-Financial Policy Framework," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp423, IIIS.
  10. Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.
  11. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2012. "Bilateral Imbalances in Europe," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 58438, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  12. Christoph Zwick, 2013. "Current Account Adjustment in the Euro-Zone: Lessons from a Flexible-Price-Model," Graz Economics Papers 2013-08, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
  13. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux, 2013. "Trends in European real exchange rates," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 193-242, 04.
  14. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-Account Adjustments and Exchange-Rate Misalignments," Working Papers 2013-29, CEPII research center.

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