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Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

Financial crashes were followed by deep recessions in the Sudden Stops of emerging economies. An equilibrium business cycle model with a collateral constraint explains this phenomenon as a result of the amplification and asymmetry that the constraint induces in the responses of macro-aggregates to shocks. Leverage rises during expansions, and when it rises enough it triggers the constraint, causing a Fisherian deflation that reduces credit and the price and quantity of collateral assets. Output and factor allocations fall because access to working capital financing is also reduced. Precautionary saving makes Sudden Stops low probability events nested within normal cycles, as observed in the data. (JEL E21, E23, E32, E44, G01, O11, O16)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 100 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1941-66

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:100:y:2010:i:5:p:1941-66

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  1. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in sudden stop economies: an assessment of the new mercantilism," International Finance Discussion Papers 911, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  7. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2004. "Quantitative Implication of A Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Braggion, F. & Christiano, L. & Roldos, J., 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Sudden Stop," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3107633, Tilburg University.
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  12. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
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