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Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates

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  • Nan Li

    (Ohio State University)

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Abstract

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 686-704

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:09-196

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Keywords: Cyclical wage; Interest rates; Emerging market economies; Business cycles;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sumru Altug & Serdar Kabaca, 2014. "Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labour Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 14-35, Bank of Canada.
  2. Mitra, Shalini, 2013. "Informality, financial development and macroeconomic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 454-457.
  3. Sumru Altug & Serdar Kabaca & Meltem Poyraz, 2011. "Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum 1136, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  4. Messina, Julian & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Evolving wage cyclicality in Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 6978, The World Bank.
  5. Andres Fernandez & Felipe Meza, . "Informal Employment and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Case of Mexico," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.

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