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Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labour Supply

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Pistaferri, Luigi

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Abstract

We address the question of how labour supply responds to anticipated wage growth, unanticipated wage growth, and wage risk. We use the 1989-93 panel section of the Bank of Italy SHIW, which collects individual-based quantitative expectation of future wage growth. The use of subjective expectations has several advantages. First, subjective expectations provide information on the evolution and riskiness of future wages that the econometrician may never hope to observe. Second, they allow to control directly for the forecast error, thus avoiding inconsistency in short panels. Finally, controlling for anticipated and unanticipated wage changes avoids the need of specifying instruments for the growth rate of wages, which is usually hard to predict. We find that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is precisely estimated and slightly larger than previous micro estimates. A parametric permanent innovation in wages impacts positively the rate of growth of labour supply. The impact of wage risk is consistent with the theory, but of negligible magnitude.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3628.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3628

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Related research
Keywords: labour supply; subjective expectations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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    Other versions:
  2. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Luigi Pistaferri, 2001. "Superior Information, Income Shocks, And The Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 465-476, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2009. "Comparative Advantage and Unemployment," RCER Working Papers 547, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Giamboni Luigi, 2004. "Do husbands’ and wives’ predictions irrationally diverge?," Departmental Working Papers 203, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nigel Key & Michael J. Roberts & Erik O'Donoghue, 2006. "Risk and farm operator labour supply," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 573-586, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Denis Conniffe & Donal O’Neill, 2008. "An Efficient Estimator for Dealing with Missing Data on Explanatory Variables in a Probit Choice Model," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1960908.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  5. Morissette, René & Ostrovsky, Yuri, 2005. "The Instability of Family Earnings and Family Income in Canada, 1986 to 1991 and 1996 to 2001," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2005265e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle," IFS Working Papers W06/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Reichling, Felix, 2006. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance in Labor Market Equilibrium when Workers can Self-Insure," MPRA Paper 5362, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  8. Glenn Rudebusch & Eric Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Steven J. Haider & David S. Loughran, 2003. "How Important Are Wages to the Elderly? Evidence from the New Beneficiary Data System and the Social Security Earnings Test," Working Papers wp049, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  10. Giamboni Luigi & Waldmann Robert, 2004. "A behavioral model of consumption," Departmental Working Papers 202, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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