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Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?

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Author Info
Martin Uribe
Vivian Yue

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Abstract

A number of studies have stressed the role of movements in US interest rates and country spreads in driving business cycles in emerging market economies. At the same time, country spreads have been found to respond to changes in both the US interest rate and domestic conditions in emerging markets. These intricate interrelationships leave open a number of fundamental questions: Do country spreads drive business cycles in emerging countries or vice versa, or both? Do US interest rates affect emerging countries directly or primarily through their effect on country spreads? This paper addresses these and other related questions using a methodology that combines empirical and theoretical elements. The main findings are: (1) US interest rate shocks explain about 20 percent of movements in aggregate activity in emerging market economies at business-cycle frequency. (2) Country spread shocks explain about 12 percent of business-cycle movements in emerging economies. (3) About 60 percent of movements in country spreads are explained by country-spread shocks. (4) In response to an increase in US interest rates, country spreads first fall and then display a large, delayed overshooting; (5) US-interest-rate shocks affect domestic variables mostly through their effects on country spreads. (6) The fact that country spreads respond to business conditions in emerging economies significantly exacerbates aggregate volatility in these countries. (7) The US-interest-rate shocks and country-spread shocks identified in this paper are plausible in the sense that they imply similar business cycles in the context of an empirical VAR model as they do in the context of a theoretical dynamic general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy.

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Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Jun ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2004:i:jun:x:6

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2007. "The buffer stock model redux? An analysis of the dynamics of foreign reserve accumulation," Working Papers Series wp2007_02.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche. [Downloadable!]
  2. Garima Vasishtha & Taimur Baig & Manmohan S. Kumar & Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies: How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 06/184, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorge Selaive C. & Valentín Délano T., 2006. "Sovereign Spreads: A Factorial Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(1), pages 49-67, April. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alicia García-Herrero & Álvaro Ortiz, 2005. "The role of global risk aversion in explaining Latin American sovereign spreads," Banco de España Working Papers 0505, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cohen, Daniel & Portes, Richard, 2004. "Dealing with Destabilizing 'Market Discipline'," CEPR Discussion Papers 4280, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. C. Bora Durdu, 2006. "Are Indexed Bonds a Remedy for Sudden Stops?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 11, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI Discussion Papers 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  8. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2005. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0503005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Loayza, Norman V. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "The structural determinants of external vulnerability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4089, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2005. "World Interest Rate, Business Cycles, and Financial Intermediation in Small Open Economies," Staff General Research Papers 12360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Vivian Z. Yue & Samir Jahjah, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/210, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kodama, Masahiro, 2006. "Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 52, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO). [Downloadable!]
  14. Keisuke Otsu, 2008. "A Neoclassical Analysis of The Korean Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 449-471, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ivan Tchakarov & Selim Elekdag, 2006. "The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand," IMF Working Papers 06/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2007. "On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 43-54, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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