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Competitive Devaluations: A Welfare-Based Approach

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Paolo Pesenti
  • Nouriel Roubini
  • Cedric Tille

Abstract

This paper studies the mechanism of international transmission of exchange rate shocks within a 3-country Center-Periphery model, providing a choice-theoretic framework for the policy analysis and empirical assessment of competitive devaluations. If relative prices and terms of trade exhibit some flexibility conforming to the law of one price, a devaluation by one country is beggar-thy-neighbor relative to another country through its effects on cost-competitiveness in a third market. Yet, due to direct bilateral trade among the two countries, there is a large range of parameter values for which a country is better off by maintaining a peg in response to its partner's devaluation. If instead deviations from the law of one price are to be considered the dominant empirical paradigm, then the beggar-thy-neighbor effect based on competition in a third market may disappear. However, a country's devaluation has a negative welfare impact on the economies of its trading partners based on the deterioration of their export revenues and profits and the increase in disutility from higher labor effort for any level of consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6889.

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Date of creation: Jan 1999
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Publication status: published as Corsetti, Giancarlo, Paolo Pesenti, Nouriel Roubini and Cedric Tille. "Competitive Devaluations: Toward A Welfare-Based Approach," Journal of International Economics, 2000, v51(1,Jun), 217-241.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6889

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
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  4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
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  7. W.H. Buiter & G Corsetti & P Pesenti, 1997. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," CEP Discussion Papers dp0321, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  15. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
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  19. Cedric Tille, 1999. "The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of shocks," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 67, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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