Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: the importance of banking and financial regional criteria

Contents:

Author Info

  • Céline Gimet

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The last financial crises have revealed the vulnerability of many emerging countries. Yet, within an economically integrated area, some groups of countries have been spared the disastrous consequences of these crises. The purpose of this article is to underline the similarities between these countries in order to draw up a set of regional criteria that would protect an area against speculative attacks. Using a probit analysis, we show that the convergence of some banking and financial indicators towards reference levels guarantees theconfidence of international lenders, which in turn limits financial contagion. A narrow margin between the amount of external debt, in particular the short term debt of the country and a reference level constitutes a protection against the risk of illiquidity. Similarly, a low domestic credit in comparison with the international reserves of the economy is also an indicator of thesustainability of an area for international lenders. It is these factors that have ensured the stock exchange stability that some emerging areas have enjoyed during the different crisis episodes

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/35/60/66/PDF/sustainability_of_an_emerging_area-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00356066.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2007
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 2007, 17, 4, pp. 317-335
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00356066

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00356066/en/
    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

    Related research

    Keywords: fundamental contagion; probit analysis; regional criteria;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
    5. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2003. "The unholy trinity of financial contagion," MPRA Paper 13878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    15. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    17. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
    18. Catherine Fuss, 1999. "Mesures et tests de convergence : une revue de la littérature," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 69(1), pages 221-249.
    19. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Sources of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/146, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Andrea Bonilla, 2014. "External vulnerabilities and economic integration. Is the Union of South American Nations a promising project ?," Working Papers halshs-00945044, HAL.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00356066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.