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Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls

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Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

In this paper I analyze several issues related to contagion,' including its definition, recent experiences, alternative channels at work, and possible prevention mechanisms. The discussion deals with the macroeconomics implications of contagion, and concentrates on the relationship between the degree of openness of the capital account and the transmission of foreign shocks. More specifically, I ask whether restrictions to capital mobility and, in particular, controls on capital inflows of the type Chile implemented throughout most of the 1990s reduce a country's vulnerability to contagion. I also deal, albeit briefly, with the connection between the exchange rate regime and the propagation of international shocks. The evidence presented in this paper shows that the effectiveness of Chile's controls on inflows has often been overstated. Indeed, Chile was severely affected by the East Asian, Russian and Brazilian crises.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7801.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7801

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F0 - International Economics - - General
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  3. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "The Likelihood Test Under Non-Standard Conditions: Testing the Markov Trend Model of GNP," RCER Working Papers 279, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Marcelo Soto & Salvador Valdés, 1996. "¿Es el Control Selectivo de Capitales Efectivo en Chile? Su Efecto sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(98), pages 77-108. [Downloadable!]
  7. Clifford Ball & Walter Torous, 1995. "Regime Shifts in Short Term Riskless Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1141, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maurizio Michael Habib, 2002. "Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0209004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2002. "Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  3. Masahiro Kawai & Shinji Takagi, 2003. "Rethinking Capital Controls: The Malaysian Experience," Macroeconomics Working Papers 473, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  5. Forbes, Kristin J., 2003. "One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smaller Traded Firms," Working papers 4273-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Céline Gimet, 2007. "Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: the importance of banking and financial regional criteria," Post-Print halshs-00356066_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets," Working Papers 0907, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sebastián Edwards, 2005. "Managing the Capital Account," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 338, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  12. Central Bank of Chile Working Group for the 11th APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting, 2004. "Institution Building in a World of Free and Volatile Capital Flows: A Case Study of Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 12, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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