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Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper I analyze several issues related to contagion,' including its definition, recent experiences, alternative channels at work, and possible prevention mechanisms. The discussion deals with the macroeconomics implications of contagion, and concentrates on the relationship between the degree of openness of the capital account and the transmission of foreign shocks. More specifically, I ask whether restrictions to capital mobility and, in particular, controls on capital inflows of the type Chile implemented throughout most of the 1990s reduce a country's vulnerability to contagion. I also deal, albeit briefly, with the connection between the exchange rate regime and the propagation of international shocks. The evidence presented in this paper shows that the effectiveness of Chile's controls on inflows has often been overstated. Indeed, Chile was severely affected by the East Asian, Russian and Brazilian crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7801.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7801

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  2. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  3. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian & Edwards, Alejandra Cox, 1991. "Monetarism and Liberalization," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226184890, May.
  5. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  6. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "The Likelihood Test Under Non-Standard Conditions: Testing the Markov Trend Model of GNP," RCER Working Papers 279, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Marcelo Soto & Salvador Valdés, 1996. "¿Es el Control Selectivo de Capitales Efectivo en Chile? Su Efecto sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(98), pages 77-108.
  8. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  9. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  10. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  12. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1995. "Regime Shifts in Short Term Riskless Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5hs021jf, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  13. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Maryla Maliszewska & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2004. "Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Shock Absorber?," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0272, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  2. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Default Risk and Risk Averse International Investors," Working Papers 0907, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 73-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sebastián Edwards, 2005. "Managing the Capital Account," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 338, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Edwards, Sebastian & Rigobon, Roberto, 2009. "Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 256-267, July.
  6. Maurizio Michael Habib, 2002. "Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0209004, EconWPA.
  7. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  8. Forbes, Kristin J., 2003. "One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smaller Traded Firms," Working papers 4273-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  9. Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo & Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Diana Zhumabekova & Mardi Dungey, 2001. "Factor analysis of a model of stock market returns using simulation-based estimation techniques," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Kraeussl, Roman, 2003. "Do Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings Contribute to Financial Contagion in Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/22, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Steinherr, Alfred & Cisotta, Alessandro & Klar, Erik & Sehovic, Kenan, 2006. "Liberalizing Cross-Border Capital Flows: How Effective Are Institutional Arrangements against Crisis in Southeast Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 6, Asian Development Bank.
  13. Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2002. "Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Central Bank of Chile Working Group for the 11th APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting, 2004. "Institution Building in a World of Free and Volatile Capital Flows: A Case Study of Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 12, Central Bank of Chile.
  15. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 3. How Do Structural Policies Affect Financial Crisis Risk?: Evidence from Past Crises Across OECD and Emerging Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 966, OECD Publishing.
  17. Céline Gimet, 2007. "Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: the importance of banking and financial regional criteria," Post-Print halshs-00356066, HAL.

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