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La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?

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  • Sophie Brana
  • Delphine Lahet

Abstract

L’objectif de l’article est d’analyser le comportement des investisseurs a l’egard du risque pays en tant que declencheur des crises financieres et facteur de contagion a l’occasion de la crise asiatique. La contagion a-t-elle touche des pays proches sur le plan des fondamentaux (contagion discriminante), au-dela des canaux traditionnels de transmission des chocs, ou a-t-elle frappe des pays sans discernement en raison d’un mouvement de defiance generalise (contagion pure) ? Les resultats des tests econometriques realises sur un echantillon de pays emergents de 1994 à 2004 montrent que la crise thailandaise a bien provoque un changement de comportement de la part des investisseurs, que l’on peut assimiler a de la contagion pure.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Brana & Delphine Lahet, 2005. "La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 73-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2005-3td
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    Cited by:

    1. Yudhistira, Bintang, 2018. "The Effects of Financial Crises on Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 91883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2009. "Les déterminants des entrées de capitaux en Asie : quel rôle pour les stratégies de carry trade?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(3), pages 283-302, septembre.
    3. Delphine Lahet, 2009. "Le repositionnement des pays émergents : de la crise financière asiatique de 1997 à la crise de 2008," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 275-306.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion financiere; crise asiatique; contagion pure/discriminante; spread; rating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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