La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?
AbstractL’objectif de l’article est d’analyser le comportement des investisseurs a l’egard du risque pays en tant que declencheur des crises financieres et facteur de contagion a l’occasion de la crise asiatique. La contagion a-t-elle touche des pays proches sur le plan des fondamentaux (contagion discriminante), au-dela des canaux traditionnels de transmission des chocs, ou a-t-elle frappe des pays sans discernement en raison d’un mouvement de defiance generalise (contagion pure) ? Les resultats des tests econometriques realises sur un echantillon de pays emergents de 1994 à 2004 montrent que la crise thailandaise a bien provoque un changement de comportement de la part des investisseurs, que l’on peut assimiler a de la contagion pure.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.
Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): 103 ()
Contagion financiere; crise asiatique; contagion pure/discriminante; spread; rating;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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