Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings
AbstractThe 1990s have witnessed pronounced boom-bust cycles in emerging-markets lending, culminating in the Asian financial and currency crisis of 1997-8. By examining the links between sovereign credit ratings and dollar bond yield spreads over 1989-97, this paper aims at broad empirical content for judging whether the three leading rating agencies--Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch IBCA-- can intensify or attenuate boom-bust cycles in emerging-market lending. First, an event study exploring the market response for 30 trading days before and after rating announcements finds a significant impact of imminent upgrades and implemented downgrades for a combination of ratings by the three leading agencies, despite strong anticipation of rating events. Second, a Granger causality test, by correcting for joint determinants of ratings and yield spreads, finds that changes in sovereign ratings are mutually interdependent with changes in bond yields. These findings are based on many more observations than just the highly publicized crisis episodes in Mexico and Asia. They imply that sovereign ratings have the potential to moderate euphoria among investors on emerging-market bonds, but that the rating agencies have failed to exploit that potential over the past decade. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.
Volume (Year): 2 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1367-0271
Other versions of this item:
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statistics
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.