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High Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia

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Takatoshi Ito
Yuko Hashimoto

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Abstract

Using daily data during the period of Asian Currency Crises, this paper examines high-frequency contagion effects among Asian six countries. By identifying the origin' (of exchange rate depreciation, or decline in stock prices) and the affected' (currencies, or stock prices) in spillover relationship, Indonesia and Korea are found to be the two main origin countries, affecting exchange rates and stock prices of other countries. Evidence of high-frequency crisis spillover from Thailand to other countries was weak at best. A positive relationship between trade link indices and the contagion coefficients is found, implying that the bilateral trade linkage is an important factor for currency market participants to expect which currency should be affected within days of an original a shock in the exchange rate of a particular country.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9376.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9376

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  2. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Miller, Merton, 1998. "Asian financial crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-358, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Wealth Transfers, Contagion and Portfolio Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jan P. A. M. Lestano, 2007. "Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 371-388. [Downloadable!]
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