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Competitive devaluations: a welfare-based approach

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Author Info
Giancarol Corsetti
Paolo Pesenti
Nouriel Roubini
Cedric Tille

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Abstract

This paper studies the mechanism of international transmission of exchange rate shocks within a three-country Center-Periphery model, providing a choice-theoretic framework for the policy analysis and empirical assessment of competitive devaluations. If relative prices and terms of trade exhibit some flexibility conforming to the law of one price, a devaluation by one country is beggar-thy-neighbor relative to another country through its effects on cost-competitiveness in a third market. Yet, due to direct bilateral trade between the two countries, there is a large range of parameter values for which a country is better off by maintaining a peg in response to its partner’s devaluation. If instead deviations from the law of one price are to be considered the dominant empirical paradigm, then the beggar-thy-neighbor effect based on competition in a third market may disappear. However, a country’s devaluation has a negative welfare impact on the economies of its trading partners based on the deterioration of their export revenues and profits and the increase in disutility from higher labor effort for any level of consumption.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 58.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:58

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "Welfare And Macroeconomic Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G.M. & Pesenti, P.A., 1998. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," Princeton Studies in International Economics 84, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  9. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. John Fernald & Hali Edison & Prakash Loungani, 1998. "Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Kenen, Peter B., 1985. "Macroeconomic theory and policy: How the closed economy was opened," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 625-677 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  13. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion-Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Cedric Tille, 1999. "The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of shocks," Staff Reports 67, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  18. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  19. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade Structure Any Importance in the Trasmission of Currency Shocks? An Empirical Application for Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries to Eu," ISAE Working Papers 43, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2678, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Montalbano, Pierluigi & Federici, Alessandro & Triulzi, Umberto & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2005. "Trade Openness and Vulnerability in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers RP2005/43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Chui & Simon Hall & Ashley Taylor, . "Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour," Bank of England working papers 212, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Francesca Viani, 2005. "International Monetary Fund Resources and Contagion Mechanisms: A Hypothesis," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(6), pages 69-103, November-. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints," NBER Working Papers 11440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  8. David Cook & Michael B. Devereux, 2004. "Dollar bloc or dollar block: external currency pricing and the East Asian crisis," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2004-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  9. Moura, Guilherme V. & Richard, Jean-François & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2007. "Dynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimation," Economics Working Papers 2007,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade any Importance in the Transmission of Currency Shocks?," Economics Working Papers 028, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martin Uribe & Vivian Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Wajih Khallouli, 2004. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00201220_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Loisel, Olivier & Martin, Philippe, 1999. "Coordination, Cooperation, Contagion and Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 2075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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