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A Solution to the Default Risk-Business Cycle Disconnect

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  • Vivian Z. Yue

    (New York University)

  • Enrique G. Mendoza

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

costs. The model replicates observed output dynamics around defaults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments. Three features of the model are central for these results: working capital loans pay for imported inputs; default triggers an efficiency loss as imported inputs are replaced by imperfect domestic substitutes; and default on public and private foreign obligations occurs simultaneously.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2009 Meeting Papers with number 76.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:76

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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Fax: 1-314-444-8731
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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References

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  1. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets," Working Paper 09-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  2. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do countries default in “bad times”?," Working Paper Series 2007-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  4. Lizarazo, Sandra, 2010. "Default Risk and Risk Averse International Investors," MPRA Paper 20794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
  6. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
  9. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
  10. Felipe Meza & David Benjamin, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Labor Reallocation: The Case of the Korean 1997 Crisis," 2007 Meeting Papers 157, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-34, September.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1984. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Christine A. McDaniel & Edward J. Balistreri, 2003. "A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities," Computational Economics 0303002, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Mart�n & Stefano Rossi, 2012. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions," Working Papers 622, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Ricardo Nunes & Horacio Sapriza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2010. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," 2010 Meeting Papers 1224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2010. "International Government Debt," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 199, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  4. Nan Li, 2008. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 438, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Felipe Meza & Carlos Urrutia, 2008. "Great Appreciations: Accounting for the Real Exchange Rate in Mexico, 1988-2002," Working Papers 0807, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  6. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.

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