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Internal Debt Crises and Sovereign Defaults

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  • Narayana Kocherlakota

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Cristina Arellano

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

In this paper, we use data from developing countries to argue that sovereign defaults are often caused by fiscal pressures generated by large-scale domestic defaults. We argue that these systemic domestic defaults are caused by shocks best interpreted as being non-fundamental. We construct a model that is consistent with these observations. The key ingredient of the model is that it is impossible to liquidate large amounts of entrepreneurial assets. This restriction generates the possibility of a domestic coordinated default crisis, in which domestic borrowers find it optimal to default because all other borrowers are also defaulting. We conclude that avoiding sovereign defaults requires better internal institutions, not better external ones.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2008 Meeting Papers with number 139.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed008:139

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References

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  1. Ilhyock Shim & Narayana Kocherlakota, 2005. "Forbearance and prompt corrective action," BIS Working Papers 177, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71, pages 883-913, 07.
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  5. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do countries default in “bad times”?," Working Paper Series 2007-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
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  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-fulfilling debt crises," Staff Report 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
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  13. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," Research Department Publications 4411, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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  18. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  19. Kocherlakota Narayana R, 2001. "Risky Collateral and Deposit Insurance," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, February.
  20. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
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  22. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2012. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Working Papers 462, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  2. Aitor Erce Domiguez, 2010. "Debtor Discrimination During Sovereign Debt Restructurings," 2010 Meeting Papers 1324, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Enrique G. Mandoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect," International Finance Discussion Papers 924, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," NBER Working Papers 13946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "A quantitative analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage markets and the foreclosure crisis," Working Papers 11-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2011. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Wang, Alan T. & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2013. "Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors – The case of Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 586-601.
  8. Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Burietz, Aurore, 2013. "One crisis, two crises…the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt problems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 35-44.
  9. Bertrand Gruss & Karel Mertens, 2009. "Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/22, European University Institute.
  10. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Aitor Erce, 2012. "Selective sovereign defaults," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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