This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Gabriel Cuadra
Horacio Sapriza

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Emerging economies tend to experience larger political uncertainty and more default episodes than developed countries. This paper studies the effect of political uncertainty on sovereign default and interest rate spreads in emerging markets. The paper develops a quantitative model of sovereign debt and default under political uncertainty in a small open economy. Consistent with empirical evidence, the quantitative analysis shows that higher levels of political uncertainty significantly raise the default frequency and both the level and volatility of the spreads. When parties borrow from international credit markets, the presence of political uncertainty induces a short-sight behavior in politicians.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/documents/%7BE980C9ED-5AE9-D722-1D7E-7A12E99E2501%7D.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2006-02.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-02

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.banxico.org.mx
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas).

Related research
Keywords: Default; Sovereign Debt; Political Risk;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Default Risk-Business Cycle Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Default Risk and Risk Averse International Investors," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets," Working Paper 09-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Computing business cycles in emerging economy models," Working Paper 06-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  5. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "Quantitative models of sovereign default and the threat of financial exclusion," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 251-286. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrique G. Mandoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect," International Finance Discussion Papers 924, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 163-187. [Downloadable!]
  8. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2008. "Heterogeneous borrowers in quantitative models of sovereign default," Working Paper 07-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  10. Guido Sandleris & Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Indexed Sovereign Debt: a Survey and a Framework of Analysis," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 66, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  11. Arellano, Cristina, 2008. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 7867, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Citation analysis on IDEAS includes online papers that are freely accessible and whose text could be automatically analyzed, currently about 210000 papers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.