The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults

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The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults

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Ugo Panizza
Eduardo Levy Yeyati

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Abstract

Few would dispute that sovereign defaults entail significant economic costs, including, most notably, important output losses. However, most of the evidence supporting this conventional wisdom, based on annual observations, suffers from serious measurement and identification problems. To address these drawbacks, we examine the impact of default on growth by looking at quarterly data for emerging economies. We find that, contrary to what is typically assumed, output contractions precede defaults. Moreover, we find that the trough of the contraction coincides with the quarter of default, and that output starts to grow thereafter, indicating that default episode seems to mark the beginning of the economic recovery rather than a further decline. This suggests that, whatever negative effects a default may have on output, those effects result from anticipation of a default rather than the default itself.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4485.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4485

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
- Bodman, P.M. & Crosby, M., 1998. "The Australian Business Cycle: Job Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 649, The University of Melbourne.
Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Do Sovereign Defaults Hurt Exporters?," RES Working Papers 4447, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Default Risk-Business Cycle Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Luis A. V. Catao & Ana Fostel & Sandeep Kapur, 2008. "Persistent Gaps and Default Traps," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0803, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Catão, Luis A.V. & Fostel, Ana & Kapur, Sandeep, 2009. "Persistent gaps and default traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-284, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do countries default in “bad times”?," Working Paper Series 2007-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default In "Bad Times"?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-23, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
- Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default in "Bad Times" ?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 352-360, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Borensztein, 2008. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Working Papers 08/238, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "¿Perjudican a los exportadores los incumplimientos soberanos?," RES Working Papers 4448, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
repec:bep:glecon:7:2007:2:2 is not listed on IDEAS
Enrique G. Mandoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect," International Finance Discussion Papers 924, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Do Sovereign Defaults Hurt Exporters?," RES Working Papers 4447, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]

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