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The Australian Business Cycle: Job Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?

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Author Info

  • Bodman, P.M.
  • Crosby, M.

Abstract

We address the question of whether asymmetry in the business cycle and asymmetry in the persistence of negative versus positive shocks characteries Australian output growth. Using nonlinear time series models we provide evidence that suggests Australian output growth is characterised by three distinct phases: contractions, high growth recovery periods and "normal" or moderate growth periods. This implies that Australian output fluctuations have a significant transitory component and is supportive of the "output-gaps" view and "plucking" model view of economic fluctuations. In contrast to recent evidence for the US and Canada however, we find that Australian GDP growth does not exhibit important asymmetries in the responses of output growth to positive and negative shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 649.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:649

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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5355
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
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Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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Keywords: BUSINESS CYCLES ; BUSINESS CYCLES;

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Cited by:
  1. Dr Alicia Rambaldi & Bortolussi, 2004. "Interactions of Source State and Market Price Trends for Cattle of Korean, Japanese and USA Market Specifications," Discussion Papers Series 334, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  2. Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 745, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
  4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "An investigation of the behaviour of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 676-683, July.
  5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "The Cost of Reserves," Business School Working Papers 2006-10, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  6. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "The elusive costs of sovereign defaults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 95-105, January.
  7. Nilss Olekalns, 2001. "Cyclical asymmetries in Australian macroeconomic data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 145-148.
  8. Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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