The Australian Business Cycle: Job Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?
Abstract
We address the question of whether asymmetry in the business cycle and asymmetry in the persistence of negative versus positive shocks characteries Australian output growth. Using nonlinear time series models we provide evidence that suggests Australian output growth is characterised by three distinct phases: contractions, high growth recovery periods and "normal" or moderate growth periods. This implies that Australian output fluctuations have a significant transitory component and is supportive of the "output-gaps" view and "plucking" model view of economic fluctuations. In contrast to recent evidence for the US and Canada however, we find that Australian GDP growth does not exhibit important asymmetries in the responses of output growth to positive and negative shocks.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 649.Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:649
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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5289
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
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Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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Related research
Keywords: BUSINESS CYCLES ; BUSINESS CYCLES;Other versions of this item:
- Bodman, Philip M & Crosby, Mark, 2002. "The Australian Business Cycle: Joe Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 191-207, June.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000.
"The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
745, The University of Melbourne.
- Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2002. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 683-692, January.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006.
"The Cost of Reserves,"
Business School Working Papers
2006-10, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2008. "The cost of reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 39-42, July.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "The Cost of Reserves," Business School Working Papers 2006-11, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006.
"The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults,"
Research Department Publications
4485, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "The elusive costs of sovereign defaults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 95-105, January.
- Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
- Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Dr Alicia Rambaldi & Bortolussi, 2004. "Interactions of Source State and Market Price Trends for Cattle of Korean, Japanese and USA Market Specifications," Discussion Papers Series 334, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
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