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The Australian Business Cycle: Job Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?

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Author Info
Bodman, P.M.
Crosby, M.

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Abstract

We address the question of whether asymmetry in the business cycle and asymmetry in the persistence of negative versus positive shocks characteries Australian output growth. Using nonlinear time series models we provide evidence that suggests Australian output growth is characterised by three distinct phases: contractions, high growth recovery periods and "normal" or moderate growth periods. This implies that Australian output fluctuations have a significant transitory component and is supportive of the "output-gaps" view and "plucking" model view of economic fluctuations. In contrast to recent evidence for the US and Canada however, we find that Australian GDP growth does not exhibit important asymmetries in the responses of output growth to positive and negative shocks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 649.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:649

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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
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Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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Related research
Keywords: BUSINESS CYCLES BUSINESS CYCLES

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Cited by:
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  1. Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 745, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Olive, 2002. "Is Average Variable Cost a Good Proxy for Short-Run Marginal Cost and Why is it Important?," Research Papers 0208, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dr Alicia Rambaldi & Bortolussi, 2004. "Interactions of Source State and Market Price Trends for Cattle of Korean, Japanese and USA Market Specifications," Discussion Papers Series 334, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "The Cost of Reserves," Business School Working Papers 2006-11, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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