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Financial crises and total factor productivity

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Author Info
Felipe Meza
Erwan Quintin

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Abstract

Total factor productivity (TFP) falls markedly during financial crises, as we document with recent evidence from Mexico and Asia. These falls are unusual in magnitude and present a difficult challenge for the standard small open economy neoclassical model. We show in the case of Mexico’s 1994-95 crisis that the model predicts that inputs and output should have fallen much more than they did. Using models with endogenous factor utilization, we find that capital utilization and labor hoarding can account for a large fraction of the TFP fall during the crisis. However, these models also predict that output should fall significantly more than in the data. Given the behavior of TFP, the biggest challenge may not be explaining why output falls so much following financial crises, but rather why it falls so little.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Center for Latin America Working Papers with number 0105.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddcl:0105

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Keywords: Financial crises - Mexico;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides & Vangelis Vassilatos, 2008. "Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico," Working Papers 2008_38, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?," Staff Report 391, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David Cook & Hiromi Nosaka, 2005. "Dual labor markets and business cycles," Working Paper Series 2006-36, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David Benjamin, Felipe Meza, . "Productivity in Economies with Financial Frictions: Facts and a Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0613, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  5. Benjamin, David M. & Meza, Felipe, . "Total Factor Productivity and Labor Reallocation: The Case of the 1997 Korea Crisis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0701, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrique G. Mandoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect," International Finance Discussion Papers 924, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Elias Brandt & Scott Dressler & Erwan Quintin, 2004. "The real impact of financial crises," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Default Risk-Business Cycle Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Keisuke Otsu, 2007. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Asian Crisis: Business Cycle Accounting of a Small Open Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  10. Keisuke Otsu, 2008. "A Neoclassical Analysis of The Korean Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 449-471, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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