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Total Factor Productivity and Labor Reallocation: The Case of the 1997 Korea Crisis

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Benjamin, David M.
Meza, Felipe

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Abstract

Detrended Total Factor Productivity (TFP), net of changes in capital utilization, fell by 3.3% after the Korean 1997 financial crisis. Detrended real GDP per working age person fell by 11.9%. We construct a two-sector small open economy model that can account for 30.0% of the fall in TFP in response to a sudden stop of capital inflows and an increase in international interest rates. Empirically, the fall in TFP follows a reallocation of labor from the more productive manufacturing sector to the less productive agriculture and public sectors. The model has a consumption sector and an investment sector. The reallocation of labor in the data corresponds to a movement from the investment sector to the consumption sector in the model. In the model, a sudden stop raises the costs of imports, which are used more heavily as an input in the investment sector. Also investment falls sharply in response to the increase in international interest rates. We show further that a fall in export demand and working capital requirements can both amplify the effects of the sudden stop. The model accounts for 41.0% of the fall in GDP. Keywords; Small open Economy; Total factor productivity; Korean 1997 crisis; Sudden stop

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Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0701.

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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:0701

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  1. Keisuke Otsu, 2008. "A Neoclassical Analysis of The Korean Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 449-471, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 14395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  5. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2005. "Structural Change in a Multi-Sector Model of Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 1800, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 12564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Atish R. Ghosh & A. Javier Hamann & Timothy D. Lane & Steven Phillips & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & T. M. Tsikata, 1999. "IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand," IMF Occasional Papers 178, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000880, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Fabrizio Perri & Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Restuccia, Diego & Urrutia, Carlos, 2001. "Relative prices and investment rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 93-121, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Why Did Productivity Fall So Much during the Great Depression?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 34-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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