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Heterogeneous borrowers in quantitative models of sovereign default

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Author Info
Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
Horacio Sapriza
Abstract

We extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to alternate in power. We show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions. Under high political stability, political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlation between economic conditions and default decisions, a higher and more volatile spread, and lower borrowing levels after a default episode.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 07-01.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:07-01

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  7. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Carlos Arteta & Galina Hale, 2006. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Working Paper Series 2006-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "Quantitative models of sovereign default and the threat of financial exclusion," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 251-286. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
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