Sovereign defaults: Information, investment and credit
AbstractWhy would a sovereign government, immune from bankruptcy procedures and with few assets that could be seized in the event of a default, ever repay foreign creditors? And, correspondingly, why do foreign creditors lend to sovereigns? This paper finds general conditions under which, even in the absence of sanctions, lending to sovereigns can emerge in a single shot game. Furthermore, it shows that positive borrowing can be sustained both in pooling and separating equilibria. In this way, it makes clear that neither sanctions nor reputation considerations, the two classical explanations, are necessary to enforce repayment. Information revelation is the crucial mechanism for these results. The repayment/default decision is interpreted as a signal used by the government to communicate information to domestic and foreign agents about the fundamentals of the economy. Governments repay to affect agents' expectations about them. A default, through its effect on expectations about fundamentals, can generate a decline in foreign and domestic investment and a credit crunch in domestic credit markets. Governments repay to avoid these costs, but may default (in equilibrium) when hit by a negative shock.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.
Volume (Year): 76 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552
Sovereign debt Sovereign default Reputation Sanctions Signaling;
Other versions of this item:
- Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," Business School Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Guido M. Sandleris, 2005. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," 2005 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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