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The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis

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  • Manuela Goretti

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper investigates the main sources of instability in Brazil during the currency and financial distress episode of 2002. We test for financial contagion from the Argentine crisis and the impact of factors including IMF intervention and political uncertainty in raising the probability of crisis. The empirical investigation employs a Markov switching model with endogenous transition probabilities.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0506/0506001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0506001.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 04 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0506001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Brazil; contagion; financial crises; IMF intervention; Markov switching model; political uncertainty.;

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References

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  1. Hellwig, Christian, 2002. "Public Information, Private Information, and the Multiplicity of Equilibria in Coordination Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 191-222, December.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
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  4. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 429-450, December.
  5. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  8. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 99/46, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Roberto Chang, 2006. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 12448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Marcel Fratzscher, 2000. "On Currency Crises and Contagion," Working Paper Series WP00-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  11. Alessandro Prati & Massimo Sbracia, 2002. "Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Zhang, Lei & Marcus Miller & Kannika Thampanishvong, 2003. "Learning to Forget? Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 227, Royal Economic Society.
  13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1400, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, . "Why are Brazil´s Interest Rates so High?," Working Papers 224, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  15. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09.
  16. Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
  17. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1991. "An analysis of Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9125, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
  2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "The politics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 291-317.
  3. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Lima, Eduardo J.A., 2009. "Market efficiency of Brazilian exchange rate: Evidence from variance ratio statistics and technical trading rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(3), pages 814-820, May.

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