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On the cyclicality of the interest rate in emerging economy models: solution methods matter

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Author Info

  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo
  • Leonardo Martinez
  • Horacio Sapriza

Abstract

We study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies. This model is often solved using the discrete state space technique with evenly spaced grid points. We show that this method necessitates a large number of grid points to avoid generating spurious interest rate movements. This makes the discrete state technique significantly more inefficient than using Chebyshev polynomials or cubic spline interpolation to approximate the value functions. We show that the inefficiency of the discrete state space technique is more severe for parameterizations such that the borrowing levels that are observed more frequently in the simulations feature a high sensitivity of the bond price to the borrowing level. In addition, we find that the efficiency of the discrete state space technique can be greatly improved by (i) finding the equilibrium as the limit of the equilibrium of the finite-horizon version of the model, instead of iterating separately on the value and bond price functions and (ii) concentrating grid points in asset levels at which the bond price is more sensitive to the borrowing level and in levels that are observed more often in the model simulations. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets. ; Replaces Working Paper 06-11 (Computing Business Cycles in Emerging Economy Models) ; Updated by Working Paper 10-04 (Quantitative Properties of Sovereign Default Models: Solution Methods Matter)

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File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/working_papers/2009/wp_09-13.cfm
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 09-13.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:09-13

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Keywords: Interest rates;

References

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  1. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2001. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies:The Role of Interest Rates," Working Papers 01-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2002. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Centro de Alti­simos Estudios Ri­os Pe©rez(CAERP) 2, Centro de Altisimos Estudios Rios Perez (CAERP).
  3. Felipe Meza & David Benjamin, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Labor Reallocation: The Case of the Korean 1997 Crisis," 2007 Meeting Papers 157, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
  5. Kartik Athreya & Xuan S. Tam & Eric R. Young, 2011. "A quantitative theory of information and unsecured credit," Working Paper 08-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  6. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  7. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-02, Banco de México.
  8. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds," Staff Report 410, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2010. "Financial Frictions and Total Factor Productivity: Accounting for the Real Effects of Financial Crises," Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers 429, Hunter College: Department of Economics.
  10. Igor Livshits & James MacGee & Michele Tertilt, 2005. "Consumer Bankruptcy: A Fresh Start," Discussion Papers 04-011, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  11. David Benjamin, 2008. "Recovery Before Redemption," 2008 Meeting Papers 531, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  13. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Martin Uribe & Vivian Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  15. Boz, Emine, 2011. "Sovereign default, private sector creditors, and the IFIs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 70-82, January.
  16. David Benjamin & Mark L. J. Wright, 2009. "Recovery Before Redemption: A Theory Of Delays In Sovereign Debt Renegotiations," CAMA Working Papers 2009-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  17. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
  18. Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza & Gabriel Cuadra, 2009. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 701, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2009. "Financial Integration and International Risk Sharing," Working Papers 594, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  20. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  21. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "Quantitative models of sovereign default and the threat of financial exclusion," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 251-286.
  22. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
  23. Li, Wenli & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel, 2006. "U.S. consumer bankruptcy choice: The importance of general equilibrium effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 613-631, April.
  24. Juan M. Sanchez, 2008. "The Role of Information in Consumer Debt and Bankruptcy," 2008 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Terms of Trade and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-01, Banco de México.
  26. Athreya, Kartik B., 2002. "Welfare implications of the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1999," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1567-1595, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa-Padilla & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "Debt dilution, overborrowing, and sovereign default risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
  3. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 163-187.
  4. Jing Zhang & Yun Jung Kim, 2010. "Decentralized Borrowing and Centralized Default," 2010 Meeting Papers 1288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Edward S. Knotek II & Stephen Terry, 2008. "Alternative methods of solving state-dependent pricing models," Research Working Paper RWP 08-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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