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Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector

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Author Info
Carlos Arteta
Galina Hale

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Abstract

We argue that, through its effect on aggregate demand and country risk premia, sovereign debt restructuring can adversely affect the private sector's access to foreign capital markets. Using fixed effect analysis, we estimate that sovereign debt rescheduling episodes are indeed systematically accompanied by a decline in foreign credit to emerging market private firms, both during debt renegotiations and for over two years after the agreements are reached. This decline is large (over 20%), statistically significant, and robust when we control for a host of fundamentals. We find that this effect is different for financial sector firms, for exporters, and for nonfinancial firms in the non-exporting sector. We also find that the effect depends on the type of debt rescheduling agreement.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006-21.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-21

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Keywords: Debts External Financial crises

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  1. Michael P. Dooley & Sujata Verma, 2001. "Rescue Packages and Output Losses Following Crises," NBER Working Papers 8315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sergio Rebelo & Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," 2004 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Vivian Z. Yue, 2005. "Sovereign Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2005 Meeting Papers 138, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 11370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2002. "Why Are Rates of Inflation So Low After Large Devaluations?," NBER Working Papers 8748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & Kristin J. Forbes, 2004. "Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jose Vicente Martinez and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Is it Punishment? Sovereign Defaults and the Decline in Trade," Business School Working Papers 2008-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cristina Arellano, 2005. "Default Risk, the Real Exchange Rate and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. repec:att:wimass:192054 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," NBER Working Papers 10957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Guido M. Sandleris, 2005. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," 2005 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Guido Sandleris & Gaston R. Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2004. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," IMF Working Papers 04/221, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
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  1. Guido Sandleris & Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Indexed Sovereign Debt: a Survey and a Framework of Analysis," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 66, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  2. Miguel Fuentes & Diego Saravia, 2006. "Sovereign Defaulters: Do International Capital Markets Punish Them?," Documentos de Trabajo 314, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 163-187. [Downloadable!]
  4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "Heterogeneous borrowers in quantitative models of sovereign default," Working Paper 07-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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