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Bonds or Loans? the Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals

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Galina Hale

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Abstract

The costs of debt crises are not invariant to the foreign debt instrument composition: bank loans or bonds. The lending boom of the 1990s witnessed considerable variation over time and across countries in the debt instrument used by emerging market (EM) borrowers. This article tests how macroeconomic fundamentals affect the composition of international debt instruments used by EM borrowers. Analysis of micro-level data using an ordered probability model shows that macroeconomic fundamentals explain a significant share of variation in the ratio of bonds to loans for private borrowers, but not for the sovereigns. Copyright 2007 The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2007.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02007.x
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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 117 (2007)
Issue (Month): 516 (01)
Pages: 196-215
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:117:y:2007:i:516:p:196-215

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 1998. "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 35-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas, 2000. "Equity, Bonds, and Bank Debt: Capital Structure and Financial Market Equilibrium under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 324-351, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P & Kim, Jung Yeon, 2001. "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 201-16, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1992. " Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1367-400, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 341-69, May.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Galina Hale & Carlos Arteta, 2007. "Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: credit crunch or demand effect?," Working Paper Series 2007-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Mizen & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2008. "Evidence on the External Finance Premium from the US and Emerging Asian Corporate Bond Markets," Working Papers 142008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Issam Hallak & Paul Schure, 2008. "Why Larger Lenders obtain Higher Returns: Evidence from Sovereign Syndicated Loans," Department Discussion Papers 0802, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  4. Winfried Koeniger & Matthieu Bussiere & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Currency Mismatch, Uncertainty and Debt Structure," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 181, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Claessens, Stijn & Schmukler, Sergio, 2007. "International Financial Integration through Equity Markets: Which Firms from Which Countries Go Global?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher & Winfried Koeniger, 2004. "Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure," Working Paper Series 409, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2004. "Why Dones't Asia have the biger bond markets," Working Papers 242004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2004. "Why Doesn't Asia Have Bigger Bond Markets?," NBER Working Papers 10576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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