Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
AbstractIn this paper, we provide capital flow forecasts to 32 developing countries using a vector error correction framework based on underlying domestic (pull) fundamentals and international (push) factors. In general, pull factors have a heavier weight in determining these capital flows. However, short-term dynamics of capital flows can be significantly influenced by external developments. Simulations under various economic scenarios show that while financial variables (such as the US interest rate and high-yield spread) are important, real US activity may be even more potent in influencing capital flow movements. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Galina Hale, 2003.
"Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm343, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2007.
- Galina Hale, 2007. "Bonds or Loans? the Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 196-215, 01.
- Galina Hale, 2003. "Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1403, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 2005.
- Frenkel, Michael & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003.
"Are Foreign Institutional Investors Good for Emerging Markets?,"
Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen FakultÃ¤t der Leibniz UniversitÃ¤t Hannover
dp-283, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Michael Frenkel & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Are Foreign Institutional Investors Good for Emerging Markets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1275-1293, 08.
- Carlos Arteta & Galina Hale, 2006.
"Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector,"
Working Paper Series
2006-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
- Carlos Arteta & Galina Hale, 2006. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," International Finance Discussion Papers 878, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Odedokun, Matthew, 2003. "The 'Pull' and 'Push' Factors in North-South Private Capital Flows: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Estimates," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Nouriel Roubini, 2001.
"The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
8634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Roubini, Nouriel, 2002. "The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," Working Paper Series rwp02-002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.
- Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2002.
"International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries,"
IMF Working Papers
02/43, International Monetary Fund.
- Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2013. "International capital crunches: the time-varying role of informational asymmetries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2961-2973, July.
- Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Taylor & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role Of Informational Asymmetries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 113, Royal Economic Society.
- Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows Into Turkey," Working Papers 0605, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Guido Cazzavillan & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2009.
"Interaction between foreign financial services and foreign direct investment in Transition Economies: An empirical analysis with focus on the manufacturing sector,"
2009_22, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Cazzavillan, Guido & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2012. "Interaction between foreign financial services and foreign direct investment in Transition Economies: An empirical analysis with focus on the manufacturing sector," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 305-319.
- Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.
- Galina Hale & Carlos Arteta, 2007.
"Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: credit crunch or demand effect?,"
Working Paper Series
2007-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hale, Galina & Arteta, Carlos, 2009. "Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: Credit crunch or demand effect?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 758-774, October.
- Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2004. "Modelling the demand for emerging market assets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows into Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 11-35.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.