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Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?

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Author Info
Fernando A. Broner
Guido Lorenzoni
Sergio L. Schmukler

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Abstract

We argue that emerging economies borrow short term due to the high risk premium charged by bondholders on long-term debt. First, we present a model where the debt maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharing problem between the government and bondholders. By issuing long-term debt, the government lowers the probability of a rollover crisis, transferring risk to bondholders. In equilibrium, this risk is reflected in a higher risk premium and borrowing cost. Therefore, the government faces a trade-off between safer long-term debt and cheaper short-term debt. Second, we construct a new database of sovereign bond prices and issuance. We show that emerging economies pay a positive term premium (a higher risk premium on long-term bonds than on short-term bonds). During crises, the term premium increases, with issuance shifting towards shorter maturities. The evidence suggests that international investors' time-varying risk aversion is crucial to understand the debt structure in emerging economies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13076.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13076

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2008. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets: A Vertical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 10517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2006. "International financial integration through the law of one price," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3897, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. de la Torre, Augusto & Schmukler & Sergio L., 2004. "Coping with risk through mismatches : domestic and international financial contracts for emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3212, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Fixed Costs and FDI: The Conflicting Effects of Productivity Shocks," NBER Working Papers 10864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Yoshifumi Kon, 2007. "Liquidity Risk Aversion, Debt Maturity, and Current Account Surpluses: A Theory and Evidence from East Asia," NBER Working Papers 13004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2003. "Which Countries Export FDI, and How Much?," NBER Working Papers 10145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Melecky, Martin, 2008. "An alternative framework for foreign exchange risk management of sovereign debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4458, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fernando A. Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Why are Capital Flows so Much More Volatile in Emerging Than in Developed Countries?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 328, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fernando A. Broner & R. Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2005. "A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management," NBER Working Papers 11293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  17. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2007. "Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?," NBER Working Papers 13119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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