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The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks

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  • Rigobon, Roberto
  • Pavlova, Anna

Abstract

We study the comovement among stock prices and among exchange rates in a three-good three-country Centre-Periphery dynamic equilibrium model in which the Centre?s agents face portfolio constraints. We characterize equilibrium in closed form for a broad class of portfolio constraints, solving for stock prices, terms of trade, and portfolio holdings. We show that portfolio constraints generate wealth transfers between the Periphery countries and the Centre, which increase the comovement of the stock prices across the Periphery. We associate this excess comovement caused by portfolio constraints with the phenomenon known as contagion. The model generates predictions consistent with other important empirical results such as amplification and flight-to-quality effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Rigobon, Roberto & Pavlova, Anna, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6647
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Contagion; International finance; Portfolio constraints; Terms of trade; Wealth transfer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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