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The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks

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Author Info
Pavlova, Anna
Rigobon, Roberto

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Abstract

We study the comovement among stock prices and among exchange rates in a three-good three-country Centre-Periphery dynamic equilibrium model in which the Centre’s agents face portfolio constraints. We characterize equilibrium in closed form for a broad class of portfolio constraints, solving for stock prices, terms of trade, and portfolio holdings. We show that portfolio constraints generate wealth transfers between the Periphery countries and the Centre, which increase the comovement of the stock prices across the Periphery. We associate this excess comovement caused by portfolio constraints with the phenomenon known as contagion. The model generates predictions consistent with other important empirical results such as amplification and flight-to-quality effects.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6647.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6647

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Related research
Keywords: asset pricing; contagion; International finance; portfolio constraints; terms of trade; wealth transfer;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chris Edmond & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2009. "Aggregate Implications of Micro Asset Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 15254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "A Model of Capital and Crises," NBER Working Papers 14366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mardi Dungey & George Milunovich & Susan Thorp, 2008. "Unobservable Shocks as Carriers of Contagion: A Dynamic Analysis Using Identified Structural GARCH," NCER Working Paper Series 22, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
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