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Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds

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Author Info
Cristina Arellano
Ananth Ramanarayanan

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Abstract

This paper studies the maturity composition and the term structure of interest rate spreads of government debt in emerging markets. In the data, when interest rate spreads rise, debt maturity shortens and the spread on short-term bonds is higher than on long-term bonds. To account for this pattern, we build a dynamic model of international borrowing with endogenous default and multiple maturities of debt. Short-term debt can deliver higher immediate consumption than long-term debt; large long-term loans are not available because the borrower cannot commit to save in the near future towards repayment in the far future. However, issuing long-term debt can insure against the need to roll-over short-term debt at high interest rate spreads. The trade-off between these two benefits is quantitatively important for understanding the maturity composition in emerging markets. When calibrated to data from Brazil, the model matches the dynamics in the maturity of debt issuances and its comovement with the level of spreads across maturities.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 410.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:410

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Keywords: Bonds ; Debt ; Default (Finance);

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  2. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 709-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hanno Lustig & Christopher Sleet & Sevin Yeltekin, 2005. "Fiscal Hedging and the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 11687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. " Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1351-60, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2009. "Firm dynamics and financial development," Staff Report 392, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Niepelt, Dirk, 2008. "Debt Maturity without Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," TÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0901, TUSIAD-Koc University Economic Research Forum. [Downloadable!]
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