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Fiscal Hedging and the Yield Curve

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Author Info
Hanno Lustig
Christopher Sleet
Sevin Yeltekin

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Abstract

We identify a novel, fiscal hedging motive that helps to explain why governments issue more expensive, long-term debt. We analyze optimal fiscal policy in an economy with distortionary labor income taxes, nominal rigidities and nominal debt of various maturities. The government in our model can smooth labor tax rates by changing the real return it pays on its outstanding liabilities. These changes require state contingent inflation or adjustments in the nominal term structure. In the presence of nominal pricing rigidities and a cash in advance constraint, these changes are themselves distortionary. We show that long term nominal debt can help a government hedge fiscal shocks by spreading out and delaying the distortions associated with increases in nominal interest rates over the maturity of the outstanding long-term debt. After a positive spending shock, the government raises the yield curve and steepens it.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11687.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11687

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2003. "Necessity of transversality conditions for stochastic problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 140-149, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Missale, Alessandro & Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 309-19, March.
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  4. Buera, Francisco & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2004. "Optimal maturity of government debt without state contingent bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 531-554, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2002. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results," Working Paper Series WP-02-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  7. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy With Noncontingent Debt And The Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sevin Yeltekin & Hanno Lustig & Chris Sleet, 2004. "Does the US government hedge against government expenditure risk?," 2004 Meeting Papers 48, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  1. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 19, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. YiLi Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2007. "A Multiplier Approach to Understanding the Macro Implications of Household Finance," NBER Working Papers 13555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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