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International reserves and rollover risk

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  • Javier Bianchi
  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo
  • Leonardo Martinez

Abstract

Two striking facts about international capital flows in emerging economies motivate this paper: (1) Governments hold large amounts of international reserves, for which they obtain a return lower than their borrowing cost. (2) Purchases of domestic assets by nonresidents and purchases of foreign assets by residents are both procyclical and collapse during crises. We propose a dynamic model of endogenous default that can account for these facts. The government faces a trade-off between the benefits of keeping reserves as a buffer against rollover risk and the cost of having larger gross debt positions. Long-duration bonds, the countercyclical default premium, and sudden stops are important for the quantitative success of the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 13-01.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-01

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Keywords: Economic growth ; Business cycles ; Financial markets ; Financial institutions;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2013. "Sudden Stops, Time Inconsistency, and the Duration of Sovereign Debt," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 217-228, June.
  2. Broner, Fernando A & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio, 2011. "Gross Capital Flows: Dynamics and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
  4. Cheng, G., 2013. "A Growth Perspective on Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Working papers 443, Banque de France.
  5. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2012:i:2q:p:139-157:n:vol.98no.2 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Javier Bianchi, 2012. "Comment on "Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 43-48 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sewon Hur & Illenin O. Kondo, 2013. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," International Finance Discussion Papers 1073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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