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How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?

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  • Francis A. Longstaff
  • Jun Pan
  • Lasse H. Pedersen
  • Kenneth J. Singleton

Abstract

We study the nature of sovereign credit risk using an extensive set of sovereign CDS data. We find that the majority of sovereign credit risk can be linked to global factors. A single principal component accounts for 64 percent of the variation in sovereign credit spreads. Furthermore, sovereign credit spreads are more related to the US stock and high-yield markets than they are to local economic measures. We decompose credit spreads into their risk premium and default risk components. On average, the risk premium represents about a third of the credit spread. (JEL F34, G15, O16, O19, P34)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 75-103

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:75-103

Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.2.75
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