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Rare event risk and emerging market debt with heterogeneous beliefs

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  • Dieckmann, Stephan
  • Gallmeyer, Michael

Abstract

In a setting where the lender and the borrower have heterogeneous beliefs about the likelihood of a disastrous shock to the borrower's economy, we study the debt contract that defaults at the occurrence of that shock, as proposed by Barro (2006). We find that a higher belief by the lender compared to the borrower can lead to countercyclical interest rates and credit spreads in non-default times, and to an increase in the borrower's indebtedness in default times, as often observed in emerging market economies. When calibrating the model to prices in the credit default swap market, we show that heterogeneous beliefs can account for more than 40% of the variation in CDS spreads associated with shocks to the borrower's economy in non-default times.

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  • Dieckmann, Stephan & Gallmeyer, Michael, 2013. "Rare event risk and emerging market debt with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:163-187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.11.017
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    Cited by:

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    2. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    3. Park, Sunjin, 2022. "Heterogeneous beliefs in macroeconomic growth prospects and the carry risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare event risk; Sovereign debt; Jump-diffusion model; Heterogeneous beliefs; Emerging market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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