IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gnv/wpaper/unige73325.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capital Markets and Sovereign Defaults: A Historical Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Flores Zendejas, Juan

Abstract

This paper provides a historical perspective on the relationship between capital markets and sovereign defaults. While the main body of the sovereign debt literature has rarely incorporated supply side factors, such as market distortions or conflicts of interest, we argue that the history of sovereign defaults cannot be understood without including the evolutionary structure of capital markets. The Southern European debt crises and the recent controversy surrounding the role of holdouts demonstrate that certain proposals raised in previous default episodes deserve further discussion, in particular, those aiming to deal with problems of collective action, liquidity provision, and information flaws.

Suggested Citation

  • Flores Zendejas, Juan, 2015. "Capital Markets and Sovereign Defaults: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers unige:73325, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
  • Handle: RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:73325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://luniarchidoc4.unige.ch/archive-ouverte/unige:73325/ATTACHMENT01
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    2. Anonymous, 1950. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 322-323, May.
    3. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-698, September.
    4. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    5. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "The elusive costs of sovereign defaults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 95-105, January.
    6. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-178, February.
    9. Mauricio Drelichman & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2011. "Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt and Default in the Age of Philip II," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1205-1227, December.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance. The International Financial System," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages -12, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Giorgio Fodor, 2002. "The boom that never was? Latin American loans in London 1822-1825," Department of Economics Working Papers 0205, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    12. Juan H. Flores Zendejas & Yann Decorzant, 2016. "Going multilateral? Financial markets' access and the League of Nations loans, 1923–8," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 69(2), pages 653-678, May.
    13. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2010. "The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-74.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    15. Ocampo, José Antonio & Stallings, Barbara & Bustillo, Inés & Velloso, Helvia & Frenkel, Roberto, 2014. "La crisis latinoamericana de la deuda desde la perspectiva histórica," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 36761 edited by Cepal.
    16. Vizcarra, Catalina, 2009. "Guano, Credible Commitments, and Sovereign Debt Repayment in Nineteenth-Century Peru," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(2), pages 358-387, June.
    17. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    18. Griffith-Jones, S, 1997. "Causes and Lessons of the Mexican Peso Crisis," Research Paper 132, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
    19. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and the World Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sach89-3, March.
    20. Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 125-169, August.
    21. Auboin, Marc & Engemann, Martina, 2012. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: Evidence from data on export credit insurance," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-18, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    23. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    24. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, October.
    25. Anonymous, 1950. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 678-680, November.
    26. Borensztein, Eduardo & Cowan, Kevin & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2013. "Sovereign ceilings “lite”? The impact of sovereign ratings on corporate ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4014-4024.
    27. Daniel F. Kohler, 1986. "To pay or not to pay: A model of international defaults," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 742-760.
    28. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 523-573.
    29. Rui Pedro Esteves, 2007. "Quis custodiet quem? Sovereign Debt and Bondholders` Protection Before 1914," Economics Series Working Papers 323, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Kahler, Miles, 1985. "Politics and international debt: explaining the crisis," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 357-382, July.
    31. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Introduction to "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System"," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 1-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1989. "Debt Problems and the World Macroeconomy," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 331-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    34. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Do We Need a Mechanism for Solving Sovereign Debt Crises? A Rule-Based Discussion," IHEID Working Papers 03-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    36. Robert Howse, 2007. "The Concept Of Odious Debt In Public International Law," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 185, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    37. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Do Sovereign Defaults Hurt Exporters?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 393-412, July.
    38. Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 189-206, June.
    39. Carlos Marichal, 2014. "Historical reflections on the causes of financial crises: Official investigations, past and present, 1873–2011," Investigaciones de Historia Económica - Economic History Research (IHE-EHR), Journal of the Spanish Economic History Association, Asociación Española de Historia Económica, vol. 10(02), pages 81-91.
    40. Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Caveat Emptor : Coping with Sovereign Risk under the International Gold Standard," Post-Print hal-03571415, HAL.
    41. Anonymous, 1950. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 132-133, February.
    42. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    43. Kim Oosterlinck, 2013. "Sovereign debt defaults: insights from history," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-714, WINTER.
    44. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    45. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Supersanctions and sovereign debt repayment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 19-36, February.
    46. Roland Vaubel, 1983. "The Moral Hazard of IMF Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 291-304, September.
    47. Flandreau, Marc & Flores, Juan H., 2009. "Bonds and Brands: Foundations of Sovereign Debt Markets, 1820–1830," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 646-684, September.
    48. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 1998/142, International Monetary Fund.
    49. Anonymous, 1950. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 491-492, August.
    50. Mr. Marcel Peter & Martín Grandes, 2005. "How Important Is Sovereign Risk in Determining Corporate Default Premia? The Case of South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2005/217, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Michie, Ranald, 2001. "The London Stock Exchange: A History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199242559, Decembrie.
    52. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2004. "Does the IMF Perform a Catalytic Role?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 5(1), pages 117-132, January.
    53. Frédéric Zumer & Marc Flandreau, 2004. "The making of global finance : 1880-1913," Post-Print hal-03588770, HAL.
    54. Kroszner, Randall S & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Is the Glass-Steagall Act Justified? A Study of the U.S. Experience with Universal Banking before 1933," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 810-832, September.
    55. Neal, Larry & Davis, Lance, 2006. "The evolution of the structure and performance of the London Stock Exchange in the first global financial market, 1812–1914," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 279-300, December.
    56. Sebastian Alvarez & Juan H. Flores, 2014. "Trade finance and Latin America's lost decade: The forgotten link," Investigaciones de Historia Económica - Economic History Research (IHE-EHR), Journal of the Spanish Economic History Association, Asociación Española de Historia Económica, vol. 10(02), pages 127-139.
    57. Norbert Gaillard, 2012. "A Century of Sovereign Ratings," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-1-4614-0523-8, June.
    58. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Yishay Yafeh, 2003. "The Corporation of Foreign Bondholders," IMF Working Papers 2003/107, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Puri, Manju, 1996. "Commercial banks in investment banking Conflict of interest or certification role?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 373-401, March.
    60. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
    61. Lawrence J. White, 2010. "Markets: The Credit Rating Agencies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 211-226, Spring.
    62. Flandreau, Marc & Gaillard, Norbert & Packer, Frank, 2011. "To err is human: US rating agencies and the interwar foreign government debt crisis," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 495-538, December.
    63. Marc Flandreau, 2013. "Sovereign states, bondholders committees, and the London Stock Exchange in the nineteenth century (1827–68): new facts and old fictions," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(4), pages 668-696, WINTER.
    64. Edwards, Sebastian & Esquivel, Gerardo & Márquez, Graciela (ed.), 2007. "The Decline of Latin American Economies," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226185002, December.
    65. Barry Eichengreen, 2004. "Capital Flows and Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550598, December.
    66. Bradley, Michael & De Lira Salvatierra, Irving & Gulati, Mitu, 2014. "Lawyers: Gatekeepers of the sovereign debt market?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(S), pages 150-168.
    67. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    68. Wellons, Philip A., 1985. "International debt: the behavior of banks in a politicized environment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 441-471, July.
    69. Rui Pedro Esteves, 2013. "The bondholder, the sovereign, and the banker: sovereign debt and bondholders' protection before 1914," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(4), pages 389-407, November.
    70. Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, 1984. "Latin American Debt: I Don't Think We Are in Kansas Anymore," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 335-403.
    71. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    72. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sach89-1, March.
    73. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Nov), pages 7-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    2. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    3. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Schumacher, Julian & Trebesch, Christoph & Enderlein, Henrik, 2021. "Sovereign defaults in court," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    7. Kim Oosterlinck, 2013. "Sovereign debt defaults: insights from history," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-714, WINTER.
    8. Rui Esteves & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1515-1545, October.
    9. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2019. "Sovereign risk after sovereign restructuring. Private and official default," Working Papers 423, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    10. Silvia, Marchesi, 2015. "The cost of default: private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Working Papers 320, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 28 Dec 2015.
    11. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    12. Mauricio Drelichman & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2011. "Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt and Default in the Age of Philip II," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1205-1227, December.
    13. Silvia Marchesi & Valeria Prato, 2013. "The cost of defaults: the impact of haircuts on economic growth," Working Papers 265, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    14. Mauricio Drelichman & Joachim Voth, 2007. "Lending to the borrower from hell: Debt and default in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598," Economics Working Papers 1164, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2009.
    15. Schröder, Christoph, 2014. "Haircut size, haircut type and the probability of serial sovereign debt restructurings," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-126, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Christiaan Bochove, 2014. "External debt and commitment mechanisms: Danish borrowing in Holland, 1763–1825," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 652-677, August.
    17. Rohan Pitchford & Mark L. J. Wright, 2013. "On the contribution of game theory to the study of sovereign debt and default," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(4), pages 649-667, WINTER.
    18. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
    19. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign defaults; Capital markets; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:73325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Blaise Claivaz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ihegech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.