Pricing Rare Event Risk in Emerging Markets
AbstractThis paper solves the pricing problem of an merging market debt contract in which the borrowerâ€™s economy is subject to rare event risk. Our model combines elements of a reduced form and a structural model of debt pricing. Rare event risk is modeled as a sudden event in fundamentals, and we study the role of the debt contract in providing risk sharing between the borrower and the lender. The two main frictions under consideration in our equilibrium model are limited participation of the lender through the debt contract, and heterogeneous beliefs between the borrower and the lender about the likelihood of a rare event. We solve for the rate of interest, the credit spread, the risk premium, the write-off (recovery rate) in case of default, and the dynamics of the debt contract in non-default times. We find that limited participation combined with heterogeneous beliefs has strong eÂ®ects on the level and variability of the debt contract properties
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 305.
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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Rare Event Risk; Emerging Markets; Exchange Economy; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Incomplete Market;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
- D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-13 (All new papers)
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