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Implied Default Probabilities and Default Recovery Ratios: An Analysis of Argentine Eurobonds 2000-2002

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  • Jochen R. Andritzky

Abstract

This paper calculates implied recovery rates and implied default probabilities in a risk neutral setting for Argentine US-Dollar Eurobonds during the Argentine crisis from 2000 to 2002. In a model which is related to Jarrow (1995), the hazard rate is modelled as risk neutral probability using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that implied probabilities roughly take five levels, allowing to cut the time frame analyzed into five periods. The jumps between the levels are associated with rating cuts in most cases. In 2000, the estimated location parameter of the Gumbel distribution makes a default event appear most probable after four to five years. Estimated recovery ratios range from above 50% in the beginning to an average of 25% in the end

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File URL: http://repec.org/esFEAM04/up.5319.1077821839.pdf
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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings with number 500.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:500

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Keywords: Sovereign default; credit risk;

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  1. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  3. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  4. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
  5. Fischer, Edwin O & Heinkel, Robert & Zechner, Josef, 1989. " Dynamic Capital Structure Choice: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 19-40, March.
  6. Sayantan Ghosal & Marcus Miller, 2003. "Co-ordination Failure, Moral Hazard and Sovereign Bankruptcy Procedures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 276-304, 04.
  7. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip Madan & Frank Zhang, 2001. "Understanding the role of recovery in default risk models: empirical comparisons and implied recovery rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  10. Fons, Jerome S, 1987. " The Default Premium and Corporate Bond Experience," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 81-97, March.
  11. Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March.
  12. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
  13. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1995. "The impact of default risk on the prices of options and other derivative securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 299-322, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  2. Ramiro Sosa Navarro, 2005. "Default Recovery Rates and Implied Default Probability Estimations: Evidence from the Argentinean Crisis," Documents de recherche 05-10, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  3. Ramiro Sosa Navarro, 2005. "Default Recovery Values and Implied Default Probabilities Estimations: Evidence from the Argentinean Crisis," Documents de recherche 05-21, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.

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