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What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements

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  • Diaz Weigel, Diana
  • Gemmill, Gordon
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (April)
    Pages: 476-502

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:25:y:2006:i:3:p:476-502

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    1. John Y. Campbell & John Ammer, 1991. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    5. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
    6. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2002. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1945, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    9. Patrick McGuire & Martijn A Schrijvers, 2003. "Common factors in emerging market spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    10. Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2678, The World Bank.
    11. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
    12. Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March.
    13. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    17. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    18. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
    19. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    20. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. " Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-35, September.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    22. Aneel Keswani, 2005. "Estimating A Risky Term Structure Of Brady Bonds," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 99-127, 09.
    23. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
    24. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    25. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    2. M. Kabir Hassan & Geoffrey M. Ngene & Jung Suk-Yu, 2011. "Credit Default Swaps and Sovereign Debt Markets," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-03, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    3. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39.
    4. Riedel, Christoph & Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Wagner, Niklas, 2013. "Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 209-223.
    5. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2010. "Pricing the Currency Premium Under Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from South Africa," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(60), pages 7-52, October -.
    6. D'Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2013. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads: the times, they are a-changin," Working Paper Series 1520, European Central Bank.
    7. Zvi Wiener & Dan Galai, 2009. "Credit Risk Spreads in Local and Foreign Currencies," IMF Working Papers 09/110, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
    9. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    10. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2013. "Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5275-5284.
    11. Audzeyeva, Alena & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2010. "The role of country, regional and global market risks in the dynamics of Latin American yield spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 404-422, October.
    12. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
    13. Christoph Riedel & Kannan Thuraisamy & Niklas Wagner, . "Conditional Spread Determinants for Emerging Sovereign Debt," Financial Econometics Series 2012_08, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    14. Eli M Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2007. "Interpreting sovereign spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    15. Thuraisamy, Kannan & Gannon, Gerard, 2013. "Modelling the sovereign linkages of key Latin American economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 222-239.
    16. Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2013. "Diversifying Risks in Bond Portfolios: A Cross-border Approach," MPRA Paper 44767, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2014.

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