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Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads

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Author Info

  • Martín González-Rozada
  • EduardoLevy Yeyati

Abstract

This article shows that a large fraction of the time variability of emerging market bond spreads is explained by the evolution of global factors such as risk appetite, global liquidity and contagion from systemic events such as the Russian default. This link is robust to the inclusion of country-specific factors and helps to provide accurate long-run predictions. By contrast, changes in credit ratings appear to lag spread movements and elicit little additional effect on the pricing of emerging market debt. The results highlight the critical role played by exogenous factors in the evolution of borrowing costs faced by emerging economies. Copyright � The Author(s). Journal compilation � Royal Economic Society 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 118 (2008)
Issue (Month): 533 (November)
Pages: 1917-1936

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:118:y:2008:i:533:p:1917-1936

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2000. "Implications of the euro for Latin America's financial and banking systems," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 53-81, May.
  4. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, EconWPA.
  5. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  7. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  8. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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