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Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads

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Author Info
Martín González-Rozada
EduardoLevy Yeyati

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Abstract

This article shows that a large fraction of the time variability of emerging market bond spreads is explained by the evolution of global factors such as risk appetite, global liquidity and contagion from systemic events such as the Russian default. This link is robust to the inclusion of country-specific factors and helps to provide accurate long-run predictions. By contrast, changes in credit ratings appear to lag spread movements and elicit little additional effect on the pricing of emerging market debt. The results highlight the critical role played by exogenous factors in the evolution of borrowing costs faced by emerging economies. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02196.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 118 (2008)
Issue (Month): 533 (November)
Pages: 1917-1936
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:118:y:2008:i:533:p:1917-1936

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2000. "Implications of the euro for Latin America's financial and banking systems," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 53-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philipp Maier & Garima Vasishtha, 2008. "Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?," Working Papers 08-25, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela & Eduardo Borensztein, 2007. "La Sostenibilidad de Deuda frente a Riesgo de Catastrofes Naturales," RES Working Papers 4523, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Martín González-Rozada, Mirta Molinari and Mario Virgolini, 2008. "The Economic Impact of Smoke-Free Laws on the Sales of Bars and Restaurants in Argentina," Business School Working Papers 2008-03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add Value? Evidence from the Sovereign Rating Business Institutions," RES Working Papers 4601, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carmen Altés, 2008. "Turismo y desarrollo en México," RES Working Papers 2008, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
  7. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "The Cost of Reserves," Business School Working Papers 2006-10, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Pipat Luengnaruemitchai & Susan Schadler, 2007. "Do Economists' and Financial Markets' Perspectives on the New Members of the EU Differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kevin Cowan & Patricio Valenzuela & Eduardo Borensztein, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? the Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the 2000s: A Latin American Perspective," Business School Working Papers exchangerate, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  11. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181. [Downloadable!]
  12. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela & Eduardo Borensztein, 2007. "Debt Sustainability under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance," RES Working Papers 4522, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007. "How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?," NBER Working Papers 13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Borensztein & Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Debt Instruments and Policies in the New Millennium: New Markets and New Opportunities," RES Working Papers 4456, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. César Calderón and Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2007. "Zooming in: From Aggregate Volatility to Income Distribution," Business School Working Papers 2007-03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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