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Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Roll–over

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Author Info
Galina Hale

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Abstract

With the rise of international bond markets in the 1990s, the role of sovereign credit ratings has become increasingly important. In the aftermath of Asian Crises a series of empirical studies on the effects of sovereign ratings appeared. The theoretical literature on the topic, however, remains rather scarce. We propose a model of rating agencies that is an application of global game theory in which heterogeneous investors act strategically. The model is consistent with the main findings of the empirical literature. In particular, it is able to explain the independent effect of sovereign ratings on the cost of debt. Our model also predicts that, in addition to affecting the level of debt roll–over, the mere existence of the rating agency's announcement can increase the magnitude of the response of capital flows to changes in fundamentals. In addition, introducing a rating agency to a market that otherwise would have the unique equilibrium can bring multiple equilibria. The model also allows us to explore the reasons why agencies may over–react to crises, how they can spread financial contagion, and the failure of rating agencies to predict crises. Classification-F34, G14, G15

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp062.

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Date of creation: 20 Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp062

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Keywords: credit rating; rating agency; sovereign debt; global game;

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 87-113, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Seth B. Carpenter & William Whitesell & Egon Zakrajsek, 2001. "Capital requirements, business loans, and business cycles: an empirical analysis of the standardized approach in the new Basel Capital Accord," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Millon, Marcia H & Thakor, Anjan V, 1985. " Moral Hazard and Information Sharing: A Model of Financial Information Gathering Agencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1403-22, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ferri, Giovanni & Li-Gang Liu & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2000. "How the proposd Basel Guidelines on rating-agency assessments would affect developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2369, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1998. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Emerging Market Risk and Financial Market Volatility," Discussion Paper Series 26222, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Arnoud W.A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn, 2002. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-058/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Their Impact on Recent Financial Crises," International Finance 0311013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn, 2002. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 457, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Allen, Franklin, 1990. "The market for information and the origin of financial intermediation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Roberto Chang, 2005. "Financial Crises and Political Crises," NBER Working Papers 11779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Christina E. Bannier & Marcel Tyrell, 2005. "Modelling the role of credit rating agencies - Do they spark off a virtuous circle?," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 160, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sanne Zwart, 2005. "Liquidity runs with endogenous information acquisition," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/18, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christina E. Bannier & Falko Fecht & Marcel Tyrell, 2008. "Open-End Real Estate Funds in Germany - Genesis and Crisis," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 165, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
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