Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?
AbstractSince 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages. First, we use factor analysis to study the extent to which emerging market bond spreads are driven by global factors, as opposed to country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals. Using data on different U.S. asset classes, we identify a common factor, linked to global financial conditions. Second, we use this common factor in a panel estimation framework to analyze the degree to which the fall in spreads is driven by better macroeconomic policies. Our results show that the common factor is not responsible for the reduction in spreads. Instead, emerging markets have benefited considerably from better macroeconomic policies, including lower inflation and lower debt. Therefore, a reversal of the benign global conditions need not necessarily have a substantial negative impact on financing conditions for emerging markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 08-25.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Development economics; Financial stability; International topics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ana Fostel & Graciela Kaminsk, 2007.
"Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
442, Central Bank of Chile.
- Ana Fostel & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2008. "Latin America´s Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 4, pages 117-158 Central Bank of Chile.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009.
"Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
- Alessio Ciarlone & Paolo Piselli & Giorgio Trebeschi, 2007. "Emerging Markets Spreads and Global Financial Conditions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 637, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2006. "Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 9, pages 67-87, December.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1980. "LDC participation in international financial markets : Debt and reserves," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-21, February.
- Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2003. "Characterizing Global Investors' Risk Appetite for Emerging Market Debt During Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/251, International Monetary Fund.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, October.
- Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
- Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver, 2006.
"Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings,"
Financial Management Association, vol. 35(3), Autumn.
- Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver, 2006. "Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 53-79, 09.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martín González-Rozada & EduardoLevy Yeyati, 2008.
"Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
- Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Research Department Publications 4445, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Martín González Rozada, 2005. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Business School Working Papers globalfactorsspreads, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," IDB Publications 6703, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
- repec:sfi:sfiwpa:500051 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:nbr:nberwo:13194 is not listed on IDEAS
- Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
- Torsten Sløk & Mike Kennedy, 2004. "Factors Driving Risk Premia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 385, OECD Publishing.
- Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yingzi Zhu & Marco Avellaneda, 1997. "An E-ARCH model for the term structure of implied volatility of FX options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 81-100.
- Fisher, Lawrence & Weil, Roman L, 1971. "Coping with the Risk of Interest-Rate Fluctuations: Returns to Bondholders from Naive and Optimal Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(4), pages 408-31, October.
- Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Badi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.