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Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?

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Author Info
Philipp Maier
Garima Vasishtha

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Abstract

Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages. First, we use factor analysis to study the extent to which emerging market bond spreads are driven by global factors, as opposed to country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals. Using data on different U.S. asset classes, we identify a common factor, linked to global financial conditions. Second, we use this common factor in a panel estimation framework to analyze the degree to which the fall in spreads is driven by better macroeconomic policies. Our results show that the common factor is not responsible for the reduction in spreads. Instead, emerging markets have benefited considerably from better macroeconomic policies, including lower inflation and lower debt. Therefore, a reversal of the benign global conditions need not necessarily have a substantial negative impact on financing conditions for emerging markets.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 08-25.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-25

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Related research
Keywords: Development economics; Financial stability; International topics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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