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Inflation and relative price variability in the euro area: evidence from a panel threshold model

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  • Scharff, Juliane
  • Nautz, Dieter

Abstract

In recent macroeconomic theory, relative price variability (RPV) generates the central distortions of inflation. This paper provides first evidence on the empirical relation between inflation and RPV in the euro area focusing on threshold effects of inflation. We find that expected inflation significantly increases RPV if inflation is either very low (below -1.38% p.a.) or very high (above 5.94% p.a.). In the intermediate regime, however, expected inflation has no distorting effects which supports price stability as an outcome of optimal monetary policy.

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  • Scharff, Juliane & Nautz, Dieter, 2006. "Inflation and relative price variability in the euro area: evidence from a panel threshold model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4250
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    3. Saghir Pervaiz Ghauri & Rizwan Raheem Ahmed & Jolita Vveinhardt & Dalia Streimikiene, 2017. "Estimation of Relationship between Inflation and Relative Price Variability: Granger Causality and ARDL Modelling Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(44), pages 249-249, February.
    4. Rather, Sartaj Rasool & Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2014. "Inflation and relative price variability: Evidence for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 32-41.
    5. Hiranya K. Nath & Jayanta Sarkar, 2019. "Inflation and relative price variability: new evidence from survey-based measures of inflation expectations in Australia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 2001-2024, June.
    6. María Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Dabús., 2008. "The Determinants of Relative Price Variability: Further Evidence from Argentina," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 235-255.
    7. Khan, Muhammad, 2016. "Evidence on the functional form of inflation and output growth variability relationship in European economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Rodrigo Cerda & Alvaro Silva & Rolf Lüders, 2021. "Price controls, hyperinflation, and the inflation–relative price variability relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1725-1748, October.
    9. Mª Ángeles Caraballo & Tilemahos Efthimiadis, 2012. "Divergent Optimal Inflation Rates In Euro Area Countries Or "Does One Size Fit All?"," EcoMod2012 3923, EcoMod.
    10. Bente Castro Campos, 2020. "Are there asymmetric relations between real interest rates and agricultural commodity prices? Testing for threshold effects of US real interest rates and adjusted wheat, corn, and soybean prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 371-394, July.
    11. Antonio F. Galvao & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Jose Olmo, 2013. "A panel data test for poverty traps," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1943-1952, May.
    12. David Fielding & Paul Mizen, 2008. "Evidence on the Functional Relationship between Relative Price Variability and Inflation with Implications for Monetary Policy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(300), pages 683-699, November.
    13. Ma Caraballo & Tilemahos Efthimiadis, 2012. "Is 2 % the optimal inflation rate for the Euro Area?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 235-243, September.
    14. Sartaj Rasool Rather & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Inflation and the Dispersion of Component Price Indices: A Case for Four Percent Solution," Working Papers 2015-134, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    15. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
    16. Sartaj Rasool Rather & Raja Sethu Durai & Muthia Ramachandran, 2018. "Inflation and the Dispersion of Relative Prices: A Case for 4 % Solution," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 81-91, March.

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    Keywords

    Inflation; Relative Price Variability; Panel Threshold Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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