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Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?

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  • Coudert, V.
  • Gex, M.

Abstract

Fluctuations in investor risk aversion are often cited as a factor explaining crises on financial markets. The alternation between periods of bullishness prompting investors to make risky investments, and periods of bearishness, when they retreat to the safest forms of investments, could be at the root of sharp fluctuations in asset prices. One problem in the assessment of these different periods is clearly distinguishing the risk perceived by agents from risk aversion itself. There are several types of risk aversion indicators used by financial institutions (the VIX, the LCVI, the GRAI, etc.). These indices, which are estimated in diverse ways, often show differing developments, although it is not possible to directly assess which is the most accurate. An interesting method in this respect is to link the indicators to financial crises. In principle, financial crises should coincide with periods in which risk aversion increases. Here we estimate probabilities of financial crises –currency and stock market crises– using the different risk aversion indicators as explanatory variables. This allows us to assess their respective predictive powers. The tests carried out show that risk aversion does tend to increase before crises, at least when it is measured by the most relevant indices. This variable is a good leading indicator of stock market crises, but is less so for currency crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banque de France in its journal Financial stability review.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 9 (December)
Pages: 67-87

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Handle: RePEc:bfr:fisrev:2006:9:4

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  1. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
  2. Jeffrey J. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-062, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2004. "Option-Implied Risk Aversion Estimates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 407-446, 02.
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  5. Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta Versus Market Beta," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 738, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin & Eugene N. White, 2002. "U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Torsten Sløk & Mike Kennedy, 2004. "Factors Driving Risk Premia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 385, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. Laurence Fung & Chi-sang Tam & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Changes in Investors' Risk Appetite - An Assessment of Financial Integration and Interdependence," Working Papers 0812, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  2. Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2008. "Beyond Bubbles: The Role of Asset Prices in Early-Warning Indicators," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  3. Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2008. "Does the ECB Care about Shifts in Investors’ Risk Appetite?," MPRA Paper 25973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Iuliia Brushko & Yuko Hashimoto, 2014. "The Role of Country Concentration in the International Portfolio Investment Positions for the European Union Members," IMF Working Papers 14/74, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Chaipat Poonpatpibul & Vasuveerapat Ramdecha & Krittinan Wiengwangchai & Pawinee Jitmongkolsa-mer, 2008. "Border of Monetary Policy in the New Financial State," Working Papers 2008-01, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  6. Philipp Maier & Garima Vasishtha, 2008. "Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?," Working Papers 08-25, Bank of Canada.
  7. Marini, François, 2011. "Financial intermediation in the theory of the risk-free rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1663-1668, July.
  8. Birgit Uhlenbrock, 2009. "Financial markets' appetite for risk - and the challenge of assessing its evolution by risk appetite indicators," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring financial innovation and its impact", Basel, 26-27 August 2008, volume 31, pages 221-259 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Neziri, Hekuran, 2008. "Can Credit Default Swaps Predict Financial Crises: An Empirical Test on Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 13096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Hekuran NEZIRI, 2009. "Can Credit Default Swaps Predict Financial Crises? Empirical Study On Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
  11. Jose Fique & Frank Page, 2013. "Rollover risk and endogenous network dynamics," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 213-230, June.
  12. Laurence Kang-por Fung & Chi-sang Tam & Ip-wing Yu, 2009. "Changes in investors' risk appetite - an assessment of financial integration and interdependence," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring financial innovation and its impact", Basel, 26-27 August 2008, volume 31, pages 294-321 Bank for International Settlements.

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